Predicting Bachelor's Degree Completion

The Council for Education Policy, Research and Improvement is tracking 1993-94 Florida public high school graduates over time as they enroll in, advance through, and graduate from the state’s community colleges and universities and enter the workforce. To date, the Council has followed this group through spring 2002, or eight years after high school graduation. Results from this project add to our understanding of:

  • Differing academic and demographic profiles of students who enroll in various types of community colleges and universities;
  • Differing attendance patterns of students in these institutions; and
  • Factors that contribute to postsecondary enrollment, progress, and completion – particularly for students enrolled in public community colleges and universities.

The Council developed a statistical tool that estimates the percent chance of bachelor’s degree completion for a variety of student profiles and attendance scenarios. Different chances for degree completion are generated depending on the scenarios you select. Results are based on the performance of 1993-94 Florida public high school graduates in Florida public community colleges and universities over an eight-year period.

The statistical model using student and enrollment characteristics was developed to predict the chance of bachelor's degree completion. Results are provided in this web application for the likelihood/chance of completion over a period of five to eight years.


The probability of degree completion predicted by this statistical model is an estimate based on historical data. Any resultant probability of degree attainment is strictly an estimate and a direct function of the model specification. Neither CEPRI nor the State of Florida assumes any liability whatsoever for actual performance by students in actual degree programs at any educational institution.


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